May 23, 2006

The Mathmatical Structure of Terrorism

From our buddies at PhysOrg.Com...

The nature of war is a question of great interest to everyone, especially as the era of large-scale conflicts recedes into the past. The wars of today tend to be lopsided affairs, where guerilla forces, insurgent groups, and terrorists oppose incumbent governments. Instead of a few large-scale battles, this situation leads to an apparently random series of small-scale attacks against vulnerable targets of opportunity.

The article continues to describe specific formulas... I'll provide a clip of that...

Let’s look at a specific example. In the case of the Iraq war, we might ask how many conflicts causing ten casualties are expected to occur over a one-year period. According to the data, the answer is the average number of events per year times 10–2.3, or 0.005. If we instead ask how many events will cause twenty casualties, the answer is proportional to 20–2.3. Taking into account the entire history of any given war, one finds that the frequency of events on all scales can be predicted by exactly the same exponent.

If you're into math & or war.. This is a very interesting read.
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